August 11, 2022

As the summer winds down, Urner Barry outlines some key trends to look out for: 

1. Counting Turkeys

Urner Barry's Poultry Market Reporter, Dylan Hughes, wrote: "A combination year-over-year reductions in egg sets and HPAI-induced commercial flock losses have made whole body toms and especially hens notoriously difficult to uncover this year. With most companies working ‘round the clock to rebuild the flocks following the notable disease-related losses which rival that of 2015, players are keeping close tabs on spot availability as we gradually approach the tail-end of summer and inch our way closer towards the Q4 holiday months. Although key supply indications such as turkey headcount have been slow to realize any YoY progress, (in fact total year-to-date headcount resides at the lowest level on record), hen poult placements have begun to shift towards the upside. As it currently stands, this metric stands 0.21% above 2021. This is the result of a consistent uptrend which first began in early June. When considering the roughly 20 weeks it takes for poults to mature into slaughter weight, buyers and sellers alike are hopeful that whole body birds could become slightly more visible by the time that the Q4 holidays roll along."

2. Watch Out for Pulled Pork

Urner Barry's Pork Market Reporter, Ryan Hojnowski, said: "I would say pulled pork related product is an interesting item to look at. The pork item typically used for pulled pork is a Pork Butt, aka the shoulder. There was extremely strong demand all summer long for pork butts from both retail and foodservice options. It resulted in all-time high weekly prices in late July. Even though we are still seeing good demand as of nearly mid-August, butt prices have fallen dramatically, nearly 25%. It'll be interesting to see if consumers will continue buying pulled pork at the same rate as they were in late July and into August, or if they will continue to push back at price levels until it falls further."

3. Plant Protein Prices

Urner Barry's Plant Protein Market Reporter, Andraia Torsiello, wrote: "At this point pea prices are going down, they're about 20% lower than they were two months ago. Wheat futures plummeted earlier last month, and it's likely a case of high prices curing high prices rather than a change in demand. For now the market is steady, because these declines haven't trickled down to the ingredient level yet. Key growing regions for pulses are seeing a good amount of moisture going into the ground for the crops, so we could see an improvement in yield come September and prices could adjust if more supply becomes available. A lot of these are "if's" at the moment though so its not set in stone that this will happen."

4. Boxed Beef Staying Stagnant 

Urner Barry's Beef Market Reporter, Todd Unger, said "London Broil season is around the corner and Top Rounds have flatlined between $2.60/lb to $2.80/lb since March. Prices within the boxed beef market have been fairly stagnant this year and seasonality seemingly has gone by the way side. Retail features may be a bit more aggressive in the coming months as there will be competition among proteins for consumer dollars."

5. Strong Demand in Branded and Cage-Free Eggs

Urner Barry's Egg Market Reporter, Karyn Rispoli, wrote: "In June and July, we were seeing retailers offer eggs up as a loss leader for the first time in quite a while. Consumer spending habits have shifted to account for inflation, with more and more people gravitating toward discount grocers. In a bid to maintain foot traffic, retailers have had to get increasingly competitive with their pricing, which helped to stimulate consumer interest, driving up spot market needs and wholesale values. We're also seeing very strong demand in specialty categories, like branded and cage-free eggs, which use fixed pricing. Shelf prices for specialties are often similar to or even lower than commodity eggs, so interest in the latter has waned. There's been a sharp correction over the past couple of weeks due to the dropoff in demand, but it will take a little time for those prices to reflect at the retail level."

Photo Credit: robertsre / Shutterstock.com

Georgeanne Nigro
Urner Barry
1-732-240-5330
gnigro@urnerbarry.com